Green Employment Modelling Consultant (Macroeconomic / Input-Output Modelling)

Please note that the deadline is based on Korean Standard Time Zone (KST, UTC+9)

INTRODUCTION TO GGGI

The Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) is a treaty-based international, inter-governmental organization dedicated to supporting and promoting strong, inclusive and sustainable economic growth in developing countries and emerging economies. To learn more please visit about GGGI web page. 

The Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) is an intergovernmental organization headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea, founded to support and promote a model of economic growth known as “green growth”, which targets a coherent approach to economic performance, poverty reduction, job creation, social inclusion and environmental sustainability. GGGI works with its Members and partners to strengthen their capacity and to design and deliver green growth policies and investments. Green employment is a core area of GGGI's work: its Green Employment Assessment framework has been applied in more than 40 countries.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has set out an ambitious policy framework to drive green employment and economic diversification, including UAE Vision 2031, the UAE Centennial 2071, the UAE Green Agenda 2015–2030, the National Employment Strategy 2031, the UAE Net Zero 2050 Strategic Initiative and the country's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). To support these goals, GGGI, the Abdulla Al Ghurair Foundation (AGF) and the Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (MOCCAE) have established a strategic partnership under the Nomu Al Ghurair Green Pathway program, which aims to prepare Emirati and Arab youth for green jobs and entrepreneurship, with a target of 1,560 positive career outcomes by 2028.

The foundational first activity of the program is the Green Growth Ecosystem's Enablers Assessment (Activity A.1.1), which combines three analyses: (1) an assessment of the UAE's climate startup ecosystem conditions; (2) green employment quantification; and (3) the alignment of skills gaps to curriculum and training development.

This consultancy covers Analysis 2 – Green Employment Quantification. The analysis will estimate the current baseline and forecast the future potential of green jobs across the UAE economy, using macroeconomic modelling to evaluate the employment effects of green growth scenarios and climate policies. It will update and enhance the 2019 MOCCAE–GGGI report “UAE Green Jobs Program: Jobs and Skills for the UAE's Green Economy Transformation” with more recent data, more rigorous modelling and sectoral coverage aligned with the UAE's current green growth agenda, including the 13 priority areas identified in the Concept Note (e.g., renewable energy and energy efficiency, clean hydrogen, water, green buildings, sustainable transport and mobility, green logistics, sustainable agriculture and food, waste and circular economy, sustainable hospitality and tourism, sustainable healthcare, ESG and sustainable finance, and AI).

The results will provide the quantitative foundation for the program's sector prioritization, employer partnerships, green business incubator focus areas and employment targets. The model will also be institutionalized to support the program's Annual Green Skills and Jobs Outlook (Output 3.3), and the findings will be shared with MOCCAE and other government entities to support national policy and planning.

GGGI will hire the consultant, who will report to the GGGI Project Manager, with technical guidance from the GGGI Technical Oversight Lead. The consultant will work closely with the GGGI team, the National Consultant (stakeholder engagement and data collection) and the International Consultant responsible for peer review of the models.

The overall objective of the assignment is to design, build and apply a macroeconomic employment model that quantifies net employment, at the most disaggregated level possible, for all economic sectors of the UAE at the national level, under a Business-as-Usual (BAU) baseline and green growth scenarios. Specifically, the consultant will:

• Establish the green employment quantification methodology, building on GGGI's Green Employment Assessment framework and the 2019 UAE Green Jobs Program report;
• Develop and calibrate a national macroeconomic employment model. An Input-Output (I-O) model is the suggested reference approach; consultants with access to, or expertise in, more advanced models (e.g., extended or dynamic I-O, Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based multiplier models, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) or macro-econometric models such as E3ME-type models) may propose them, provided they meet the requirements below;
• Deliver an initial BAU baseline by December 2026, including the current estimate of green employment and BAU employment projections for all sectors;
• Model green growth scenarios consistent with the UAE's Net Zero 2050, NDC and Green Agenda 2030 targets and estimate their direct, indirect, induced and net employment effects relative to BAU;
• Produce the final Green Employment Quantification Report (updated UAE Green Jobs Report) by April 2027, and hand over a documented, reusable model to GGGI.

This is an individual consultancy. The consultant will be responsible for the full modelling workflow, while the National Consultant and GGGI will facilitate access to national data and stakeholders. The work shall meet the following requirements:

• Net employment: results shall distinguish gross job creation from job losses and displacement (e.g., in fossil-fuel-based power, conventional vehicles, conventional construction), substitution of spending and investment, and other relevant crowding-out effects, and report net employment relative to BAU.
• Economy-wide and disaggregated coverage: results shall cover all economic sectors at the national level, at the most disaggregated level the data allow (target: at least ISIC Rev.4 division level or the most detailed national I-O / SUT classification available). Where the national tables are aggregated (e.g., the 34-sector ADB MRIO table), the consultant shall extend or split sectors using FCSC supply and use tables, satellite accounts, technology-specific cost structures or employment factors (e.g., IRENA, ILO, OECD), and clearly document the method.
• Green vs. non-green employment: the model shall identify green employment within mixed sectors (e.g., solar vs. gas-fired power; EV vs. conventional transport; green vs. conventional construction) and map results to the 13 priority areas.
• Disaggregation of workers: where data allow, results shall be broken down by occupation (via a sector–occupation matrix, e.g., ISCO-08), gender, nationality (Emirati / non-Emirati) and age group, to inform the program's focus on Emirati and Arab youth and women.
• UAE-specific features: the model shall account for the high import content of investment, the large share of expatriate workers and the leakage of income through remittances when estimating induced effects.
• Time horizons: base year (latest available data), 2030, 2035 and 2050, with annual results where feasible; results shall be expressed in jobs and job-years / full-time equivalents (FTE).
• Transparency and ownership: all models, data and code developed under this assignment shall be delivered to GGGI in fully editable form (e.g., Excel, Python, R or GAMS) with documentation. If a proprietary or licensed model is proposed, the consultant shall specify in the application how GGGI will access the results, assumptions and a replicable version for future updates.
• Validation and quality assurance: results shall be validated against national statistics, reviewed by the GGGI Technical Oversight lead and the peer reviewer, and presented at the 1st National Stakeholders' Validation Workshop (planned January 2027).
• Integration: the consultant shall take into account findings from Analysis 1 (climate startup ecosystem conditions) and Analysis 3 (skills gaps) when identifying barriers to green employment and sectoral interventions, and shall provide technical inputs to the integrated assessment report as requested.

The consultant will deliver the following two final outcomes, in English:

1. An initial Business-as-Usual (BAU) Baseline Report, completed by 31 December 2026.
2. The final Green Employment Quantification Report (updated UAE Green Jobs Report), together with the final model, data repository and documentation, completed by 30 April 2027.

To accomplish these outcomes, the consultant will work on the following deliverables and report bi-weekly to the Project Manager on progress, data issues, and risks. Payments will be made upon submission and GGGI's acceptance of each deliverable. Dates are indicative and may be adjusted by mutual agreement, except the BAU (December 2026) and final report (April 2027) deadlines.

All products shall be submitted in English, in editable formats (Word, Excel/source code and PowerPoint). All data, models and reports produced under this assignment are the property of GGGI and its partners. Data obtained from national entities (e.g., FCSC, MOHRE) shall be treated as confidential and used only for this assignment.

The selected consultant is expected to have the following qualifications and experience:

• Master's degree or higher in economics, environmental or resource economics, development economics, econometrics, applied mathematics or a related field. A PhD is an advantage.
• At least 15 years of professional experience in macroeconomic modelling, with demonstrated experience in Input-Output, SAM, CGE or macro-econometric modelling.
• Proven track record of quantifying employment impacts (direct, indirect, induced and net) of green growth, climate or energy-transition policies and investments, with at least two comparable national-level assessments.
• Experience constructing, updating or disaggregating I-O tables and supply and use tables, and building employment satellite accounts.
• Advanced proficiency in Excel and in at least one programming or modelling language (e.g., Python, R, GAMS, MATLAB or Stata).
• Experience in the UAE, the GCC or the wider MENA region, and familiarity with UAE statistical sources (FCSC, MOHRE), is a strong advantage.
• Familiarity with green jobs definitions and frameworks (ILO, IRENA) and with the UAE's climate and green growth policy framework is an advantage.
• Ability to deliver rigorous analytical outputs under tight deadlines and to communicate technical results clearly to non-technical audiences.
• Excellent written and spoken English is required. Knowledge of Arabic is an advantage.